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SDÜ Education Information System Course Content
Programme
Institute of Social Science
Course Information
Course Unit Code
Course Unit Title
Credit Theoretic
Credit Pratic
Credit Lab/A
Credit Total
Credit Ects
Semester
02TIS5132
Modeling and Forecasting in Tourism Business
3.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
6.00
1
Course Information
Language of Instruction
Turkish
Type of Course Unit
Elective
Course Coordinator
Assistant Professor Dr. MURAT ÇUHADAR
Course Instructors
2-Murat ÇUHADAR
Course Assistants
 
Course Aims
Tourism development based on scientific basis, estimating methods, a feature that makes it easier to make decisions of those in the case of the manager. In this way, the economy, and investors will be able to prepare a flexible development plans on issues such as the prevention of waste of resources to be allocated the necessary precautions can be taken in time. This course aims to gain competence on modeling and forecasting for students the needs of the tourism sector
Course Goals
Demand Forecasting Methods to gain competence in the use of enterprises operating in the tourism industry.
Learning Outcomes of The Course Unit
Knows modeling and forecasting techniques in tourism business and applies them.
Understand the importance of demand forecasts and modeling in tourism sector
Knows and applies qualititative methods of estimation.
Knows Quantitative (numerical) and applies forecasting techniques.
Knows and applies time series and economtric forecasting methods in tourism business.
Knows alternative demand forecasting methods in tourism business.
Course Contents
The importance of tourism demand forecasting and modeling.
Modeling and Forecasting Techniques
Qualitative Estimation Methods
Quantitative (numerical) estimation techniques
Time series methods
Causal (regression-based) estimation techniques
Demand forecasting practices in the tourism sector
Tourism demand estimates, methods of artificial intelligence
Prerequisities and Co-requisities Courses
 
Recommended Optional Programme Components
 
Mode Of Delivery
 
Level of Course Unit
 
Assessment Methods and Criteria
ECTS / Table Of Workload (Number of ECTS credits allocated)
Studies During Halfterm
Number
Co-Efficient
Activity
Number
Duration
Total
Visa
1
30
Course Duration (Excluding Exam Week)
12
3
36
Quiz
0
0
Time Of Studying Out Of Class
7
2
14
Homework
1
30
Homeworks
1
10
10
Attendance
1
30
Presentation
1
10
10
Application
1
10
Project
0
0
0
Lab
0
0
Lab Study
0
0
0
Project
0
0
Field Study
0
0
0
Workshop
0
0
Visas
1
10
10
Seminary
0
0
Finals
1
20
20
Field study
0
0
Workload Hour (30)
30
TOTAL
100
Total Work Charge / Hour
 
The ratio of the term to success
40
Course's ECTS Credit
 
The ratio of final to success
60
 
TOTAL
100
 
Recommended or Required Reading
Textbook
1- ÇUHADAR Murat, ÇÖ–ÜRCÜ ›clal, KÜKRER Ceyda (2014). Modelling and Forecasting Cruise Tourism Demand to Izmir by Different Artificial Neural Network Architectures. International Journal of Business and Social Research (IJBSR), Volume -4, No.-3, March, 2014, 12-28.
2- ÇUHADAR Murat (2014). Modelling and Forecasting Inbound Tourism Demand to Istanbul: A Comparative Analysis, European Journal of Business and Social Sciences (EJBSS), Vol.2 No.12, March 2014, 101-119.
3-ÇUHADAR Murat (2014). "Building Proper Forecast Model for Daily Air Passenger Demand: A Study of Antalya International Airport", International Antalya Hospitality Tourism And Travel Research, Washington State University & Akdeniz University, Porto Bello Hotel Antalya Turkey, December 9-12, 2014(
Additional Resources
1- Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches, Haiyan Song, Witt S F. Elsevier. 2000.
2- Advanced Econometrics of Tourism Demand, The. Routledge Advances in Tourism, Volume 13. 2010. Haiyan Song, Stephen F. Witt, Gang Li.
3- Tourism Supply Chain Management, Haiyan Song, 2013. Routledge.
Material Sharing
Documents
 
Assignments
 
Exams
 
Additional Material
 
Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods
Lectures, Practical Courses, Presentation, Seminar, Project, Laboratory Applications (if necessary)
Work Placements
As with any other educational component, credits for work placements are only awarded when the learning outcomes have been achieved and assessed. If a work placement is part of organised mobility (such as Farabi and Erasmus), the Learning Agreement for the placement should indicate the number of credits to be awarded if the expected learning outcomes are achieved.
Program Learning Outcomes
No
Course's Contribution to Program
Contribution
Course Content